How accurate is Urightmarket?
Every market eventually resolves. Below: how many have, what they resolved to, and how well the favorite at resolution aligned with the eventual outcome.
Resolution composition
What proportion of resolved markets settled each way.
No resolved markets yet.
Recent resolutions
| Market | Outcome | Volume | Resolved |
|---|
Methodology
Hit rate compares the favorite at resolution (yesPrice ≥ 0.5) against the actual outcome, across markets that resolved Yes or No (Invalid resolutions excluded since there was no “correct” answer to score against).
We don't yet publish full calibration (Brier score, predicted-vs-actual buckets) — those need a longer history of pre-resolution price snapshots than we have today. They'll appear here once they're statistically meaningful.
For markets mirrored from Polymarket, our resolution follows theirs. See Resolution and disputes for how the settlement chain works.